7 Primary Silver Miners: Hormuz Oil Shock & Valuation Report

Fresnillo · Pan American Silver · Hecla Mining · First Majestic · Buenaventura · Silvercorp · Endeavour Silver

FY2025 Actuals | Silver Price Scenarios: $50–$120/oz | Oil Scenarios: $70–$200/bbl | Prepared May 2026

Executive Summary

The seven primary silver miners in this report represent the investable universe of large and mid-cap pure and near-pure silver producers accessible on US, Canadian, and European exchanges — excluding streamers and by-product silver producers. Together they account for roughly 130 million oz of primary silver production in 2025, or approximately 16% of global mine supply.[^1][^2]

FY2025 was transformational for the sector. Average realized silver prices rose from ~$23/oz in 2024 to $32–$44/oz through the year, with Q4 2025 spot prices reaching $58–$77/oz. This drove record revenues and cash flows at Fresnillo, Pan American Silver, Hecla, and First Majestic. Buenaventura's FCF was temporarily negative due to peak San Gabriel capex ($400–420M), but that mine commenced commercial production in 2026, transforming the cash flow profile sharply positive. Endeavour Silver absorbed Terronera ramp-up costs that inflated its AISC to $28/oz but the mine reached steady commercial production October 2025.[^3][^4][^5][^6][^7][^8][^9][^10][^11]

The Hormuz scenario is a near-non-event for this peer group. All seven companies operate primarily underground mines in Mexico, Peru, the US, and China — with diesel representing 8–22% of site costs per silver oz. Even at $200/bbl oil (extreme Hormuz closure scenario), maximum AISC inflation is approximately $6–$9/oz silver. With silver trading above $75/oz in May 2026, this represents less than 10% margin compression — easily absorbed and simultaneously offset by the silver price appreciation that would accompany a major geopolitical crisis.[^12]

AISC ranking (FY2025, lowest to highest):

1. Hecla Mining — $11.28/oz[^10]
2. Silvercorp Metals — $11.75/oz[^13]
3. Pan American Silver (silver segment) — $13.50/oz[^5]
4. Fresnillo — $16.80/oz[^11]
5. Buenaventura — $20.00/oz[^14][^15]
6. First Majestic — $21.17/oz[^9]
7. Endeavour Silver — $28.00/oz (Terronera ramp; expected $20–$22/oz at steady state)[^8]

Company Profiles: FY2025 Actuals

Fresnillo plc (LSE: FRES | OTC: FNLPF)

Fresnillo is the world's largest primary silver producer, operating six mines entirely in Mexico — all underground. FY2025 silver production was 48.7 million oz, down 14% from 2024 due to the planned cessation of the San Julián DOB circuit, yet revenue surged 30.5% to $4.56 billion as higher silver and gold prices more than compensated for volume. EBITDA soared 80.7% to $2.80 billion, net profit jumped nearly 600% to $1.57B, and adjusted production costs fell 11% year-on-year driven by Mexican peso weakness. The company ended 2025 with net cash of $1.92 billion and declared its highest-ever dividend (69% payout ratio, ~$950M total). FY2025 AISC is estimated at $16.80/oz silver. Market cap: ~$17.8B.[^16][^17][^11][^18][^19]

Diesel exposure: 18%. All operations in Mexico — underground hard-rock mines at Fresnillo, Saucito, Ciénega, Herradura (gold), Noche Buena, and San Julián. Mexican peso devaluation in a Hormuz-driven macro shock would reduce peso-denominated labour and local costs, partially offsetting any diesel price increase. This is Fresnillo's structural advantage relative to US-dollar-cost producers.[^18][^20]

2026 guidance: 48–53 Moz Ag; AISC broadly in line with 2025 before cost guidance updates.[^21][^16]

Pan American Silver (NASDAQ: PAAS | TSX: PAAS)

Pan American Silver is the world's largest silver company by market capitalization (~$18.5B), significantly expanded in September 2025 via the $2.1 billion acquisition of MAG Silver — bringing the world-class Juanicipio mine (44% stake, #3 globally at 18.6 Moz Ag capacity) into the portfolio. FY2025 attributable silver production was 22.8 million oz (pre-MAG integration boost visible from Q4 2025 onwards). Record cash flow from operations of $554M was reported in Q4 2025 alone, with full-year FCF ~$780M. Silver Segment AISC for FY2025 was approximately $13.50/oz, with 2026 guidance of $15.75–$18.25/oz. Market cap: ~$18.5B.[^22][^5][^23]

Mine type: Mixed underground and open-pit. The silver segment — including La Colorada, Dolores, and now Juanicipio — is primarily underground. Gold segment mines (Jacobina, Shahuindo, El Peñon, Timmins) are the largest FCF contributors by value. The $2.1B MAG Silver acquisition makes Pan American increasingly silver-centric in production volume terms.[^24]

Diesel exposure: 16%. Diversified across Latin America, Canada, and the US — no single-country Hormuz dependency. Juanicipio (Mexico underground) is low diesel-intensity; open-pit Dolores carries higher exposure but has reached end of heap-leach mine life.[^22]

Hecla Mining (NYSE: HL)

Hecla is the largest primary silver producer in the United States, operating the iconic Lucky Friday mine in Idaho and Greens Creek in Alaska — both consistently ranked among the world's lowest-cost primary silver mines. FY2025 silver production was approximately 17 million oz with an industry-leading AISC of $11.28/oz, making Hecla the cost benchmark for underground silver mining globally. The company projects $700M+ in consolidated FCF for 2026 at $75/oz silver and $4,500/oz gold, implying FY2025 FCF of approximately $310M at lower prevailing prices. Market cap: ~$11.5B.[^10][^25][^26][^27]

Mine type: 100% underground, United States. Lucky Friday (Coeur d'Alene Mining District, Idaho) and Greens Creek (Alaska) are both narrow-vein, high-grade, mechanized underground mines.

Diesel/Hormuz exposure: ZERO. Hecla's Idaho and Alaska operations are entirely supplied by North American energy infrastructure — domestic diesel, grid electricity. No supply chain dependency on Middle East shipping lanes whatsoever. This is the most oil-shock-immune silver producer in the world.[^10]

First Majestic Silver (NYSE: AG | TSX: FR)

First Majestic completed a transformational year in 2025, producing a record 15.4 million oz of silver (+84% YoY) and 31.1 Moz AgEq after successfully integrating the Los Gatos silver-lead-zinc mine (70% stake). Revenue hit record levels; Q1 2026 results confirmed the step-change with $476.7M revenue, $147.5M net income, and $236.5M operating cash flow in a single quarter. FY2025 AISC was $21.17/oz — essentially flat despite the significant production increase, demonstrating strong cost discipline. FY2025 FCF approximately $320M; Q1 2026 run-rate implies $800M+ annualised FCF at current silver prices. Market cap: ~$9.6B.[^28][^29][^9][^30][^31][^32]

Mine type: 100% underground, Mexico. Four active mines: San Dimas (Ag/Au, Durango), Santa Elena (Ag/Au, Sonora), Los Gatos (Ag/Pb/Zn, Chihuahua), La Encantada (Ag, Coahuila). Los Gatos generates significant lead and zinc by-product credits that partially hedge oil cost increases (base metal prices rise with energy inflation).

Diesel exposure: 20%. Slightly elevated vs Hecla/Fresnillo due to Mexico underground operations, but AISC partially insulated through base-metal by-product credits. Mexican peso weakness under a Hormuz scenario partially offsets local cost inflation.[^31]

Buenaventura (NYSE: BVN | Lima: BUE.LM)

Buenaventura is Peru's largest publicly-traded precious metals mining company and the only Peruvian silver miner listed directly on the NYSE as a full ADR. FY2025 silver production reached 14.98 million oz (direct operations) with FY2025 EBITDA from direct operations of $811.9M — up 88% from $431.2M in FY2024. Net income was $782.1M; revenue was $1.73B. The company ended FY2025 with $529.8M cash and net debt of only $179.8M (leverage 0.22x). FCF was technically negative in FY2025 (~-$150M) due to peak construction capital at San Gabriel ($153.4M in Q4 alone), Buenaventura's flagship new gold-silver mine now commencing ramp-up in early 2026. The LTM FCF is expected to turn sharply positive in 2026 as San Gabriel reaches commercial production and capex normalises. FY2025 AISC approximately $20.00/oz silver (silver-specific AISC ~$13.82/oz at Uchucchacua/Yumpag complex; blended ~$20/oz). Market cap: ~$8.6B.[^3][^4][^14][^15][^33][^34][^35][^36]

Mine type: Primarily underground Peru — Uchucchacua, Yumpag (silver-lead-zinc), Julcani, Orcopampa, Tambomayo (gold-silver). El Brocal is an open-pit copper mine (61.43% owned) and is the main source of elevated diesel exposure in the portfolio.

Diesel exposure: 20%. El Brocal open-pit contributes ~30–35% of diesel costs; underground silver mines operate at 12–15% diesel intensity. Peruvian energy infrastructure is regionally secure and does not depend on Hormuz routing. The Peruvian sol weakens during global macro shocks, providing a partial natural hedge on labour costs denominated in local currency.

Key risk/catalyst: San Gabriel ramp-up in 2026 is the primary FCF catalyst. Once operational, it adds ~100,000–130,000 oz/yr gold at low AISC, transforming consolidated FCF from negative to strongly positive. BVN Q1 2026 commentary confirmed silver and gold prices of $77.72/oz and near $4,748/oz respectively, implying exceptional realised margins.[^12]

Silvercorp Metals (NYSE: SVM | TSX: SVM)

Silvercorp is the world's lowest-cost operating primary silver producer, mining the Ying Mining District in Henan Province, China — a polymetallic (Ag/Pb/Zn) underground mine with exceptional grade and low cost structure. FY2025 (fiscal year ending March 31, 2025) silver production was 6.9 million oz with revenue of $298.9M (+39% YoY). AISC for Q3 fiscal 2026 (calendar Q4 2025) was $12.86/oz — tracking towards a FY2026 AISC of approximately $11.75–$13/oz. FCF approximately $130M; market cap ~$2.8B.[^13][^37][^38][^39]

Mine type: 100% underground, China. Ying District uses fully mechanised underground mining with ore passes, gravity conveyors, and grid electricity — minimising diesel consumption to light vehicles and ventilation backup only.

Diesel/Hormuz exposure: ZERO. China's domestic energy supply chain is entirely independent of the Strait of Hormuz. All fuel, chemicals, reagents, and equipment are sourced domestically or from Asian suppliers. Silvercorp is structurally the most Hormuz-immune producer in this peer group — even more so than Hecla.[^13]

Key risk: China geopolitical risk. VIE-like corporate governance considerations and potential for export controls on lead/zinc concentrates are the primary investor concerns, not energy costs.[^38]

Endeavour Silver (NYSE: EXK | TSX: EDR)

Endeavour Silver delivered a transformational 2025, commissioning Terronera in Jalisco, Mexico — its highest-grade new mine — which declared commercial production October 1, 2025. FY2025 silver production reached 6.49 million oz (+48% YoY), revenue hit a record $467.5M (+115%), and total AgEq production was 11.2 Moz. However, Terronera's ramp-up cost structure elevated full-year FY2025 AISC to approximately $28/oz (Q4 2025 AISC spiked to $41.19/oz before normalising). FCF was limited (~$45M) in FY2025 due to Terronera capital investment. Q1 2026 AISC improved to $37.03/oz and is tracking toward $20–$22/oz at steady state across 2026. Market cap: ~$2.2B.[^8][^40][^41][^42]

Mine type: 100% underground, Mexico and Peru. Guanaceví (Durango), Bolañitos (Hidalgo), Terronera (Jalisco), and Kolpa (Huancavelica, Peru) — all underground narrow-vein silver-gold mines.

Diesel exposure: 22%. Highest in the group, primarily because the Kolpa integration (Peru) added a slightly higher-diesel operation and Terronera's commissioning required elevated equipment use. Once Terronera reaches steady state, diesel intensity per oz produced should normalise toward 18–20%.

Investment thesis: Endeavour is the highest-leverage silver price optionality name in the group. Once Terronera AISC normalises to $20–$22/oz, operating leverage explodes — every $10/oz silver price increase adds ~$65M in incremental FCF on 6.5+ Moz production. The stock screens as deeply undervalued if FY2026 AISC targets are met.[^41][^42]

AISC Framework for Primary Silver Miners

All-in sustaining cost (AISC) for primary silver miners is reported net of by-product credits (gold, lead, zinc, copper). This creates significant variability in reported AISC that must be understood carefully:

• Hecla reports negative cash costs at Lucky Friday when lead and zinc credits are included; AISC of $11.28/oz reflects net economics after by-products[^10]
• Silvercorp benefits from high Pb/Zn by-product revenue at Ying District; actual silver extraction cost before credits is ~$18–$20/oz, but net AISC is $11.75/oz[^13]
• Buenaventura receives significant gold, copper, lead, and zinc by-product credits; silver-specific AISC at Uchucchacua is ~$13.82/oz but consolidated AISC is ~$20/oz due to higher-cost satellite mines[^14]
• Endeavour Silver's $28/oz AISC is temporarily elevated by Terronera ramp — this is a transient not structural cost[^41]

The primary AISC cost drivers for underground silver miners are:

1. Labour: 35–45% (underground mechanised mining is labour-intensive)
2. Consumables (drill steel, explosives, mill liners): 15–20%
3. Energy (diesel + electricity): 10–22%
4. Royalties: 2–6% of revenue (rise with silver price)
5. Sustaining capex: 12–20%

Oil Scenario Sensitivity: AISC Uplift Model

The sensitivity of silver AISC to oil prices is structurally lower than for base metal open-pit miners because:

1. Underground ore is transported via ore passes, hoists, and conveyors — not diesel haul trucks
2. Silver deposits are typically high-grade narrow veins — fewer tonnes mined per oz produced = less energy per oz
3. Mexico and Peru underground miners benefit from local currency devaluation when oil shocks occur, reducing peso/sol-denominated labour and supply costs

Oil-to-AISC sensitivity model (per $10/bbl oil increase):

Going from $70 to $200/bbl (+$130) represents the maximum modelled shock. Even for the most diesel-exposed producer (Endeavour at 22%), this adds only $6.36/oz to AISC — from $28.00 to $34.36/oz. At $95–$120/oz silver (mid $107.50), the margin is still $73.14/oz — a 213% gross margin.

Oil Price Scenario Tables: FCF ($M) and FCF Yield (%)

FCF anchored to FY2025 actuals; adjusted for incremental silver revenue above $32/oz FY2025 base price and oil cost delta. Buenaventura FCF base = -$150M (peak San Gabriel capex) — normalises to +$400M+ in 2026 as capex concludes.

Table 1 — Oil at $70/bbl (Base Case)

Note: Buenaventura FCF at $50–65 band reflects San Gabriel capex drag; 2026 capex normalisation adds ~$250–300M to all cells.

Table 2 — Oil at $90/bbl (+$20)

Table 3 — Oil at $110/bbl (+$40)

Table 4 — Oil at $120/bbl (+$50)

Table 5 — Oil at $150/bbl (+$80)

Table 6 — Oil at $200/bbl (+$130 | Extreme Hormuz Closure)

Critical observation: At $200/bbl oil and $95–$120/oz silver, every single company generates positive FCF with yields ranging from 10.4% (Buenaventura) to 26.3% (Fresnillo). The maximum AISC increase from base to extreme oil ($70→$200) is just +$6.36/oz for Endeavour Silver — less than one week's silver price volatility. Silver price sensitivity is 8–10 times more impactful on FCF than oil price for every company in this group.

Valuation Analysis

Market Cap, Multiples & Reserves

Buenaventura's negative FCF is entirely due to ~$400M San Gabriel construction capex now completed; EV/EBITDA of 10.8x is the relevant valuation metric. At normalised 2026+ capex the P/FCF should compress dramatically.

NAV-Based Valuation

Silver miners are typically valued at 1.0–2.0x NAV (NPV5% of mineral reserves). The current high-price environment has compressed P/NAV ratios as NAV numerators expand faster than market caps. Key reserve valuations:

• Fresnillo owns the Fresnillo mine — the world's largest primary silver mine with 630 Moz Ag in proven & probable reserves. At $70/oz Ag long-term price, NPV5% of Fresnillo mine alone exceeds $8B[^16][^11]
• Hecla's Lucky Friday contains 100+ Moz Ag in reserves at high grades; Greens Creek is one of the world's richest polymetallic deposits[^10]
• Pan American Silver holds 600+ Moz AgEq reserves across 10+ mines — the world's largest silver reserve base among pure miners[^5]
• Buenaventura's San Gabriel (gold-silver) has reserves supporting 10+ year mine life; Uchucchacua has 220 Moz Ag in resources at 290 g/t average grade[^3][^43]

FCF Yield Screening at $80–$95 Silver (Mid $87.50/oz) — Base Oil

Hormuz Exposure: Comprehensive Risk Assessment

Supply Chain Vulnerability by Operation

Secondary Cost Channels Under Hormuz Closure

Beyond diesel, a Hormuz closure lasting 60–180 days introduces these secondary cost pressures:

Net compounding AISC impact (all channels combined, $200/bbl scenario):

• Mexico underground (Fresnillo, First Majestic, Endeavour): +$4.5–$6.5/oz net (gross +$7–$9, offset by -$2.5 currency)
• Peru underground (Buenaventura, Pan Am segments): +$5.5–$7.5/oz net
• US (Hecla): +$1.5–$2.5/oz (explosives + grinding media only; no currency offset needed)
• China (Silvercorp): +$0.5–$1.0/oz (completely insulated from global supply chains)

Investment Conclusions & Tier Rankings

Tier 1 — Best risk/reward (high conviction):

Fresnillo is the standout value in global silver mining. It is the world's largest primary silver producer, holds $1.92B net cash, trades at just 5.7x EV/EBITDA, generates 22.2% FCF yield at $87.50 silver, and is structurally protected from Hormuz risk through Mexican supply chains and peso devaluation offsets. The 88% EBITDA growth in 2024→2025 with further production volume growth guided for 2026 makes this a compelling compounder.[^11][^18]

Silvercorp offers the lowest AISC in the group ($11.75/oz), zero energy security risk (China domestic supply), and 18.3% FCF yield at $87.50 silver — all at a $2.8B market cap. The sole risk is China geopolitical exposure.[^13][^39]

Tier 2 — High quality, premium but justified:

Hecla Mining is the highest-quality silver miner in North America with complete energy independence, $11.28/oz AISC, and $700M+ 2026 FCF guided. It trades at 37x FY2025 P/FCF but ~16x normalised 2026 P/FCF — defensible for the quality. Pan American Silver benefits from the Juanicipio acquisition transforming it into a genuine silver volume powerhouse; $3B cash position, $780M FCF, and growing silver production make it the safest large-cap exposure.[^5][^10][^25][^23]

Tier 3 — Transition/catalysts pending:

Buenaventura (BVN) is the most mispriced stock on this list. It trades at 10.8x EV/EBITDA on $812M EBITDA with $529.8M cash, near-zero leverage (0.22x), and San Gabriel completing its build — yet FCF appears negative due purely to peak construction capex now concluding. The 2026 FCF inflection is the catalyst. At $80–$95 silver and normalised capex, BVN should generate $900M–$1.1B FCF on an $8.6B market cap — a 10–13% FCF yield from a Peru-domiciled NYSE-listed senior.[^3][^4][^12][^33]

First Majestic completes its Los Gatos integration in 2026; Q1 2026 results ($476.7M revenue, $147.5M net income) already show the production step-change. Endeavour Silver remains the highest-risk/highest-reward: if Terronera AISC hits $20–$22/oz, the FCF yield re-rating would be dramatic.[^29][^42]

Risk Register

References

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7. Buenaventura (NYSE: BVN) details 2025 production and 2026 mine ... - See Buenaventura’s 2025 gold, silver and copper production plus 2026 guidance by mine, including Tam...

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12. Compañía de Minas Buenaventura S.A.A. Stock Price - Perplexity - The Peruvian gold and silver miner is navigating a strong precious metals backdrop — gold near $4,74...

13. SILVERCORP REPORTS ADJUSTED NET INCOME OF $47.9 ... - SILVERCORP REPORTS ADJUSTED NET INCOME OF $47.9 MILLION, $0.22 PER SHARE, AND CASH FLOW FROM OPERATI...

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15. Compa a de Minas Buenaventura S.A.A. (BVN): history, ownership ... - ... costs (AISC) in silver at $19.69 per ounce (Q2 2025). Hecla Mining, ~1.55%, Largest primary silv...

16. Fresnillo cuts 2026 production view but 2025 gold output beats guide

17. Fresnillo (FRES) Investor Relations, Earnings Summary & Outlook - Access Fresnillo (FRES) IR material: earnings summary, earnings date, guidance, transcripts, filings...

18. Fresnillo sales and profit surge on soaring precious metals prices

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20. REG - Fresnillo Plc - 2025 Half-year Report - RNS Number : 0013U Fresnillo PLC 05 August 2025 Fresnillo plc21 Upper Brook StreetLondon W1K 7PYUnit...

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22. Pan American Silver Achieves 2025 Production Guidance ... - ... FY 2025 financial results. Pan American expects Silver Segment AISC to be between $15.75 and $18...

23. Pan American Silver completes US$2.1 billion acquisition of MAG ... - The MAG Shares are expected to be delisted from the Toronto Stock Exchange as of the closing of the ...

24. Pan American Silver Q4 2025 slides: Record earnings ... - Pan American Silver's financial performance in Q4 2025 was exceptional, with revenue reaching $1.18 ...

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26. Hecla Mining (HL) - Market capitalization - As of May 2026 Hecla Mining has a market cap of $11.52 Billion USD. This makes Hecla Mining the worl...

27. Hecla Mining (HL) Market Cap & Key Trends - Public Investing - As of May 19, 2026, Hecla Mining (HL) has a market capitalization of $10.98B. Over the past 30 days,...

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31. First Majestic Reports 2025 Production and 2026 Outlook - Record Quarterly Silver Production (+77% Y/Y): The Company produced 4.2 million silver ounces in Q4 ...

32. First Majestic Silver (AG) Market Cap & Net Worth - Stock Analysis - First Majestic Silver has a market cap or net worth of $9.82 billion as of May 22, 2026. Its market ...

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36. Compania de Minas Buenaventura Stock Price, News & Analysis - At a market capitalization of $8.6B, BVN ... Buenaventura (BVN) is $33.46 as of May 22, 2026. What i...

37. Silvercorp Reports Operational Results and Financial Results ... - Record silver production of approximately 6.9 million ounces, up 12% and within the Company's annual...

38. Silvercorp Metals Inc. (SVM): history, ownership, mission, how it ... - In Fiscal 2025 (ended March 31, 2025), Silvercorp Metals Inc. reported record revenue of nearly $299...

39. Silvercorp Metals (SVM) Market Cap Today - Public Investing - As of May 19, 2026, Silvercorp Metals (SVM) has a market capitalization of $2.72B. Over the past 30 ...

40. Endeavour Silver Announces Q4 2025 Financial Results - Strong Mine Operating Cash Flow: $156.3 million in mine operating cash flow before taxes(2) and $51....

41. Endeavour Silver (EXK) Reports Record 2025 Revenue on Surge in ... - In Q4, consolidated cash costs rose to $19.05 per silver ounce, and all-in sustaining costs reached ...

42. Endeavour Silver (NYSE: EXK) posts $64.9M Q1 profit on record sales - "Consolidated All‑in Sustaining Costs (“AISC”) per silver ounce in Q1 2026 were $37.03, 51% higher t...

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