Surf Report — Sat Sep 12, 2026

Day	Outlook
Travel signal	✈ Ditch Plains Sun 9/13→Mon 9/14 (§2) · ✈ Ditch Plains Thu 9/17→Fri 9/18 (§2) · ✈ Matunuck Sun 9/13→Mon 9/14 (§2)
What changes the callFlood Watch late tonight→Sun AM (heavy downpours, t-storms) wipes out Sunday. Mon 9/14 is the week's window: strong NW offshore behind the front, Ditch + Pt Judith ★. Far cast: GFS spins a coastal low ~Tue 9/22 (nor'easter signature) but ECMWF disagrees — low confidence watch.
Sat 9/12Small and soft	E 5–10 kt → SE this afternoon, seas ~2 ft. Best of a weak day: Ditch 1–2 ft @ 7s Poor, Pt Judith 1–2 ft @ 6s P2F; Rockaway 1–2 ft @ 6s Poor with 1–2 ft on the cam. Buoys confirm the S swell is nearly gone (0.5–0.6 m). Surfline rates today Poor everywhere except Pt Judith (P2F).
Sun 9/13Washout — Flood Watch	S 10–15 kt gust 20, showers/t-storms with heavy downpours, Flood Watch through midday. 2–3 ft @ 5s windswell, messy and onshore — not a surf day.
Mon 9/14Window #1 ★	Strong NW offshore 10–20 kt behind the front meets 2–3 ft @ 6s S swell. Ditch 3→2 ft ★, Pt Judith 3→2 ft ★ — clean, the best waves of the 9 days. Gusty (20+ kt at Ditch in the AM).
Tue 9/15NE junk	NE 10–15 kt gust 20, 2→1 ft @ 5s ENE windswell. Cross-shore and short-period — Poor.
Wed 9/16Small	1–2 ft @ 6–7s ESE, light/variable to onshore wind. Poor.
Thu 9/17Onshore	Onshore flow builds, 2 ft @ 6s SE. Poor.
Fri 9/18Veering	2 ft @ 5s S, wind veers onshore→offshore through the day. Poor.
Sat 9/19Offshore AM	2 ft @ 6s SE, offshore morning → onshore afternoon. Poor to Fair.
Sun 9/20Building windswell	S windswell builds to 3–4 ft @ 5s, light/variable wind. Bigger but short-period — Poor to Fair, watch.
Far cast · days 10–16	GFS spins a coastal low ~Tue 9/22 (Ditch 44 kt SE, 988 mb — nor'easter signature) but ECMWF shows nothing; low confidence. Strong high Fri 9/25+ looks quiet.

Day

Outlook

Travel signal

✈ Ditch Plains Sun 9/13→Mon 9/14 (§2) · ✈ Ditch Plains Thu 9/17→Fri 9/18 (§2) · ✈ Matunuck Sun 9/13→Mon 9/14 (§2)

What changes the callFlood Watch late tonight→Sun AM (heavy downpours, t-storms) wipes out Sunday. Mon 9/14 is the week's window: strong NW offshore behind the front, Ditch + Pt Judith ★. Far cast: GFS spins a coastal low ~Tue 9/22 (nor'easter signature) but ECMWF disagrees — low confidence watch.

Sat 9/12Small and soft

E 5–10 kt → SE this afternoon, seas ~2 ft. Best of a weak day: Ditch 1–2 ft @ 7s Poor, Pt Judith 1–2 ft @ 6s P2F; Rockaway 1–2 ft @ 6s Poor with 1–2 ft on the cam. Buoys confirm the S swell is nearly gone (0.5–0.6 m). Surfline rates today Poor everywhere except Pt Judith (P2F).

Sun 9/13Washout — Flood Watch

S 10–15 kt gust 20, showers/t-storms with heavy downpours, Flood Watch through midday. 2–3 ft @ 5s windswell, messy and onshore — not a surf day.

Mon 9/14Window #1 ★

Strong NW offshore 10–20 kt behind the front meets 2–3 ft @ 6s S swell. Ditch 3→2 ft ★, Pt Judith 3→2 ft ★ — clean, the best waves of the 9 days. Gusty (20+ kt at Ditch in the AM).

Tue 9/15NE junk

NE 10–15 kt gust 20, 2→1 ft @ 5s ENE windswell. Cross-shore and short-period — Poor.

Wed 9/16Small

1–2 ft @ 6–7s ESE, light/variable to onshore wind. Poor.

Thu 9/17Onshore

Onshore flow builds, 2 ft @ 6s SE. Poor.

Fri 9/18Veering

2 ft @ 5s S, wind veers onshore→offshore through the day. Poor.

Sat 9/19Offshore AM

2 ft @ 6s SE, offshore morning → onshore afternoon. Poor to Fair.

Sun 9/20Building windswell

S windswell builds to 3–4 ft @ 5s, light/variable wind. Bigger but short-period — Poor to Fair, watch.

Far cast · days 10–16

GFS spins a coastal low ~Tue 9/22 (Ditch 44 kt SE, 988 mb — nor'easter signature) but ECMWF shows nothing; low confidence. Strong high Fri 9/25+ looks quiet.

No active storm systems — high pressure dominates. Daily tropical + coastal-low scan continues.

Trip watch — 2+ consecutive decent days in one grid (★ window or Poor-to-Fair+, min 2 ft on that grid’s heights, not all-day onshore; trip spots only)

Spot	Days	Why it qualifies
✈ Ditch Plains	Sun 9/13 → Mon 9/14 (§2)	Sun: Poor · Poor to Fair · 2–3 ft @ 5s (§2) Mon: ★ · Poor to Fair · 3→2 ft @ 6s (§2)
✈ Ditch Plains	Thu 9/17 → Fri 9/18 (§2)	Thu: Poor · Poor to Fair · 2 ft @ 6s (§2) Fri: Poor · Poor to Fair · 2 ft @ 5s (§2)
✈ Matunuck	Sun 9/13 → Mon 9/14 (§2)	Sun: Poor · Poor to Fair · 2–3 ft @ 5s (§2) Mon: Poor to Fair · Poor to Fair · 2–3 ft @ 5s (§2)

Spot

Days

Why it qualifies

✈ Ditch Plains

Sun 9/13 → Mon 9/14 (§2)

Sun: Poor · Poor to Fair · 2–3 ft @ 5s (§2)
Mon: ★ · Poor to Fair · 3→2 ft @ 6s (§2)

✈ Ditch Plains

Thu 9/17 → Fri 9/18 (§2)

Thu: Poor · Poor to Fair · 2 ft @ 6s (§2)
Fri: Poor · Poor to Fair · 2 ft @ 5s (§2)

✈ Matunuck

Sun 9/13 → Mon 9/14 (§2)

Sun: Poor · Poor to Fair · 2–3 ft @ 5s (§2)
Mon: Poor to Fair · Poor to Fair · 2–3 ft @ 5s (§2)

2 · The grid — 10 days × 4 spots (fused call)

	Beach 90th	Ditch Plains	Matunuck	Pt Judith
Sat 9/12	1–2 ft @ 6s var 4→on 9→on 10 Poor	1–2 ft @ 7s var 2→x 7→on 6 Poor	1–2 ft @ 7s var 2→x 5→on 5 Poor	1–2 ft @ 6s var 2→var 4→on 5 Poor to Fair
Sun 9/13	2–3 ft @ 5s on 11→on 9→x 7 Poor	2–3 ft @ 5s on 12→on 10→x 6 Poor	2–3 ft @ 5s var 5→on 10→var 6 Poor	2–3 ft @ 5s var 5→on 11→off 8 Poor
Mon 9/14	1–2 ft @ 6s off 10→off 9→off 12 Poor to Fair	3→2 ft @ 6s off 21→off 11→off 13 ★	2–3 ft @ 5s off 10→off 7→var 4 Poor to Fair	3→2 ft @ 6s off 11→off 8→off 6 ★
Tue 9/15	1 ft @ 6s off 8→x 6→on 8 Poor	2→1 ft @ 5s x 17→x 13→x 11 Poor	2→1 ft @ 5s off 7→x 5→x 6 Poor	2→1 ft @ 5s off 10→x 8→x 9 Poor
Wed 9/16	1 ft @ 6s var 3→on 5→on 6 Poor	1–2 ft @ 7s x 9→var 5→var 4 Poor	1 ft @ 6s var 3→var 4→var 4 Poor	1 ft @ 6s off 5→on 5→on 5 Poor
Thu 9/17	1–2 ft @ 6s var 3→on 7→on 10 Poor	2 ft @ 6s var 4→on 8→on 12 Poor	1–2 ft @ 6s var 2→on 7→on 7 Poor	1–2 ft @ 6s var 3→on 8→on 9 Poor
Fri 9/18	1–2 ft @ 5s x 7→off 9→var 4 Poor	2 ft @ 5s on 14→off 13→off 10 Poor	2 ft @ 5s on 7→x 7→off 5 Poor	2 ft @ 5s x 10→x 8→off 6 Poor
Sat 9/19	1–2 ft @ 5s off 6→var 2→on 6 Poor	2 ft @ 6s off 13→var 3→on 9 Poor to Fair	1–2 ft @ 5s var 4→var 0→on 6 Poor	2 ft @ 6s off 6→var 2→on 9 Poor to Fair
Sun 9/20	2–3 ft @ 5s off 6→var 4→x 5 Poor to Fair	3–4 ft @ 5s off 8→var 4→on 6 Poor to Fair	3–4 ft @ 5s var 4→var 2→var 4 Poor to Fair	3–4 ft @ 5s off 6→var 1→var 4 Poor to Fair

Beach 90th

Ditch Plains

Matunuck

Pt Judith

Sat 9/12

1–2 ft @ 6s

var 4→on 9→on 10

Poor

1–2 ft @ 7s

var 2→x 7→on 6

Poor

1–2 ft @ 7s

var 2→x 5→on 5

Poor

1–2 ft @ 6s

var 2→var 4→on 5

Poor to Fair

Sun 9/13

2–3 ft @ 5s

on 11→on 9→x 7

Poor

2–3 ft @ 5s

on 12→on 10→x 6

Poor

2–3 ft @ 5s

var 5→on 10→var 6

Poor

2–3 ft @ 5s

var 5→on 11→off 8

Poor

Mon 9/14

1–2 ft @ 6s

off 10→off 9→off 12

Poor to Fair

3→2 ft @ 6s

off 21→off 11→off 13

★

2–3 ft @ 5s

off 10→off 7→var 4

Poor to Fair

3→2 ft @ 6s

off 11→off 8→off 6

★

Tue 9/15

1 ft @ 6s

off 8→x 6→on 8

Poor

2→1 ft @ 5s

x 17→x 13→x 11

Poor

2→1 ft @ 5s

off 7→x 5→x 6

Poor

2→1 ft @ 5s

off 10→x 8→x 9

Poor

Wed 9/16

1 ft @ 6s

var 3→on 5→on 6

Poor

1–2 ft @ 7s

x 9→var 5→var 4

Poor

1 ft @ 6s

var 3→var 4→var 4

Poor

1 ft @ 6s

off 5→on 5→on 5

Poor

Thu 9/17

1–2 ft @ 6s

var 3→on 7→on 10

Poor

2 ft @ 6s

var 4→on 8→on 12

Poor

1–2 ft @ 6s

var 2→on 7→on 7

Poor

1–2 ft @ 6s

var 3→on 8→on 9

Poor

Fri 9/18

1–2 ft @ 5s

x 7→off 9→var 4

Poor

2 ft @ 5s

on 14→off 13→off 10

Poor

2 ft @ 5s

on 7→x 7→off 5

Poor

2 ft @ 5s

x 10→x 8→off 6

Poor

Sat 9/19

1–2 ft @ 5s

off 6→var 2→on 6

Poor

2 ft @ 6s

off 13→var 3→on 9

Poor to Fair

1–2 ft @ 5s

var 4→var 0→on 6

Poor

2 ft @ 6s

off 6→var 2→on 9

Poor to Fair

Sun 9/20

2–3 ft @ 5s

off 6→var 4→x 5

Poor to Fair

3–4 ft @ 5s

off 8→var 4→on 6

Poor to Fair

3–4 ft @ 5s

var 4→var 2→var 4

Poor to Fair

3–4 ft @ 5s

off 6→var 1→var 4

Poor to Fair

Each cell: surf · wind morning → midday → evening (GFS model) · call. Surf heights with → show the morning → evening trend: 1→3 ft = building, 3→1 ft = fading. Plain ranges (1–2 ft) = steady. Period is the dominant swell. ★ = best window. Green row = window day, amber = watch. Green-outlined cells = Trip watch runs detected in this grid (2+ consecutive decent days, over 2 ft). Wind is the GFS model (same feed as Windy’s GFS layer), blended with NWS marine guidance on days 1–3 — Surfline’s model wind is in §3.

3 · Surfline grid — LOTUS model

Very PoorPoorPoor to FairFairGood (hand-assigned)

	Beach 90th	Ditch Plains	Matunuck	Pt Judith
Sat 9/12	0–2 ft on 8–10→on 9–10→on 11–12	0–2 ft off 9–10→x 8–9→on 8–9	0–1 ft x 6–11→on 6–7→on 6–9	0–1 ft on 7–9→on 7–8→on 7–10
Sun 9/13	1–2 ft on 18–31→x 10–22→x 7–10	1–3 ft on 12–21→on 14→on 9–15	0–3 ft on 9–19→on 5–8→x 6–9	0–2 ft on 9–13→on 5→off 8–9
Mon 9/14	0–2 ft off 13–15→off 12–14→off 17	1–3 ft off 20–25→off 17–19→off 8–11	0–2 ft off 14–23→off 14–17→off 9–12	0–2 ft x 14–23→x 14–17→x 9–12
Tue 9/15	1–2 ft x 11→x 11→on 9	1–3 ft off 16→off 14→x 12	0–2 ft off 15–16→x 11–12→on 11	0–2 ft on 15–16→on 11–12→on 11
Wed 9/16	1–3 ft on 5→on 6→on 7	2–3 ft off 9→x 7→x 5	0–2 ft x 6→on 4→on 3	0–2 ft on 6→on 4→x 3
Thu 9/17	1–2 ft on 4→on 8→on 14–15	1–3 ft on 5→on 5→on 8–11	0–2 ft on 4–5→on 7→on 11–14	0–2 ft off 4–5→x 7→x 11–14
Fri 9/18	1–2 ft off 6–7→off 5→x 7	1–2 ft x 8–11→off 8→off 5	0–1 ft off 7–10→off 5–6→x 13	0–1 ft off 7–10→x 5–6→on 13
Sat 9/19	1–3 ft x 18–19→x 18→x 17–18	1–4 ft x 20–21→x 16→x 16	0–2 ft x 13–14→on 13→on 12–13	0–2 ft on 13–14→on 13→on 12–13
Sun 9/20	1–2 ft off 9→off 7→off 7–8	2–4 ft off 13→off 7→off 10–11	1–2 ft x 14–15→x 11–13→off 12	1–2 ft on 14–15→on 11–13→on 12

Beach 90th

Ditch Plains

Matunuck

Pt Judith

Sat 9/12

0–2 ft

on 8–10→on 9–10→on 11–12

0–2 ft

off 9–10→x 8–9→on 8–9

0–1 ft

x 6–11→on 6–7→on 6–9

0–1 ft

on 7–9→on 7–8→on 7–10

Sun 9/13

1–2 ft

on 18–31→x 10–22→x 7–10

1–3 ft

on 12–21→on 14→on 9–15

0–3 ft

on 9–19→on 5–8→x 6–9

0–2 ft

on 9–13→on 5→off 8–9

Mon 9/14

0–2 ft

off 13–15→off 12–14→off 17

1–3 ft

off 20–25→off 17–19→off 8–11

0–2 ft

off 14–23→off 14–17→off 9–12

0–2 ft

x 14–23→x 14–17→x 9–12

Tue 9/15

1–2 ft

x 11→x 11→on 9

1–3 ft

off 16→off 14→x 12

0–2 ft

off 15–16→x 11–12→on 11

0–2 ft

on 15–16→on 11–12→on 11

Wed 9/16

1–3 ft

on 5→on 6→on 7

2–3 ft

off 9→x 7→x 5

0–2 ft

x 6→on 4→on 3

0–2 ft

on 6→on 4→x 3

Thu 9/17

1–2 ft

on 4→on 8→on 14–15

1–3 ft

on 5→on 5→on 8–11

0–2 ft

on 4–5→on 7→on 11–14

0–2 ft

off 4–5→x 7→x 11–14

Fri 9/18

1–2 ft

off 6–7→off 5→x 7

1–2 ft

x 8–11→off 8→off 5

0–1 ft

off 7–10→off 5–6→x 13

0–1 ft

off 7–10→x 5–6→on 13

Sat 9/19

1–3 ft

x 18–19→x 18→x 17–18

1–4 ft

x 20–21→x 16→x 16

0–2 ft

x 13–14→on 13→on 12–13

0–2 ft

on 13–14→on 13→on 12–13

Sun 9/20

1–2 ft

off 9→off 7→off 7–8

2–4 ft

off 13→off 7→off 10–11

1–2 ft

x 14–15→x 11–13→off 12

1–2 ft

on 14–15→on 11–13→on 12

One dot per part of day (morning / midday / evening). Green-outlined cells = Trip watch runs detected in this grid (2+ consecutive decent days, over 2 ft). Model run Sep 11, 2am EDT. Wind is Surfline's structured wind feed (speed–gust kt per daypart, Surfline's own offshore / onshore / cross-shore labels); heights from the public daily strip. Ratings: today's are live; future-day ratings sit behind Surfline Premium and keep the morning read.

4 · Commentary

Cross-check: Surfline's fresh 00z strip (pulled via its structured surf endpoint — full 10-day, deterministic) broadly agrees with the fused grid; where they differ it's on the small side (Ditch/Matunuck Sat read 0–2/0–1 ft vs buoy-backed 1–2 ft). Today's live ratings: Poor everywhere except Pt Judith (Poor to Fair). Future-day ratings are paywalled — Sun 9/13→Sat 9/19 dots carry yesterday's read (not re-verified), Sun 9/20's dot is a placeholder.
The S swell is nearly gone: buoys read 0.5–0.6 m @ 6–7 s this morning, down from 0.9 m yesterday. Today is small and soft everywhere — Ditch's 2 ft @ 7 s is the best of a weak day, and nothing earns a ★.
Sunday is a washout, not a surf day: Flood Watch late tonight through midday (heavy downpours, t-storms), S 10–15 kt gust 20 churning 2–3 ft @ 5 s windswell. Don't plan around it.
Monday 9/14 is the week's window: a strong NW offshore flow (10–20+ kt) behind the front grooms 2–3 ft @ 6 s of S swell. Ditch and Pt Judith both get the ★ — clean, and the best waves in the 9-day view. It'll be gusty, especially at Ditch in the morning.
Bias check: Pt Judith ran 1–2 ft yesterday against the grid's 3→2 ft — RI east spots keep getting overcalled on the fused grid. Today's Pt Judith is capped at 2 ft to match what the buoys actually show.
GFS vs ICON wind disagreements are flagged per-cell in the grid comments; days 1–3 wind was adjusted toward NWS where the models underplayed the S flow on Sunday.
Far cast detail — days 10–16: Mon 9/21 high pressure, quiet. Tue 9/22 is the one to watch — GFS spins a deep coastal low (988 mb, 44 kt SE at Ditch, nor'easter signature) while ECMWF shows high pressure and nothing. Models strongly disagree, so confidence is low, but it's the first fall-swll pattern of the season. Wed 9/23 the disagreement persists; Fri 9/25+ both models agree on a strong high — quiet.

Far cast detail — days 10–16 (pattern watch):

Mon 9/21: High pressure both models — breezy ESE 10–20 kt, quiet.
Tue 9/22: WATCH: GFS deep coastal low (988 mb, 44 kt SE at Ditch) — nor'easter signature; ECMWF has high pressure (1021 mb), no low. Models strongly disagree — low confidence, but this is the pattern to watch for the first fall swell.
Wed 9/23: GFS keeps the low (989 mb, N flow behind it); ECMWF still high and dry. Disagreement persists.
Thu 9/24: GFS low exits (N flow, 1006–1010 mb); ECMWF high pressure (1025+ mb).
Fri 9/25: Models agree: strong high (1031–1033 mb), breezy NE 10–22 kt — quiet, no swell signal.
Sat 9/26: High pressure, light winds — quiet.
Sun 9/27: High pressure, light SW — quiet.

5 · Raw data

44025 Long Island

0.5 m @ 6 s S, falling

down from 0.7 m @ 7 s SSE yesterday afternoon; S swell nearly gone

44097 Block Island

0.6 m @ 7 s SSW, steady

holding just under yesterday's 0.7 m; RI shelf still robbing energy

44065 NY Harbor

no wave data; wind SE 6 kt, 1020.2 hPa

harbor mouth calm; best Rockaway proxy shows light onshore drift

44017 Montauk

offline

HTTP Error 404 — fifth day down

Beach 90th smart cam: 1–2 ft knee-to-thigh this morning (latest reading; page did not timestamp it). No public cam obs at the other three spots.

	Montauk (Ditch)	Sandy Hook (Rockaway)	Newport (RI)
Sat 9/12	L 4:29a · H 10:15a · L 5:01p · H 10:37p	L 3:13a · H 9:16a · L 3:33p · H 9:30p	L 2:30a · H 9:14a · L 2:58p · H 9:34p
Sun 9/13	L 5:08a · H 11:01a · L 5:48p · H 11:23p	L 3:53a · H 9:58a · L 4:17p · H 10:13p	L 3:01a · H 9:58a · L 3:38p · H 10:17p
Mon 9/14	L 5:48a · H 11:47a · L 6:38p	L 4:30a · H 10:41a · L 4:58p · H 10:58p	L 3:34a · H 10:42a · L 4:16p · H 11:01p
Tue 9/15	H 12:12a · L 6:31a · H 12:37p · L 7:32p	L 5:06a · H 11:25a · L 5:40p · H 11:45p	L 4:09a · H 11:27a · L 4:54p · H 11:47p
Wed 9/16	H 1:03a · L 7:20a · H 1:29p · L 8:27p	L 5:41a · H 12:12p · L 6:25p	L 4:46a · H 12:14p · L 5:36p
Thu 9/17	H 1:56a · L 8:16a · H 2:24p · L 9:23p	H 12:36a · L 6:20a · H 1:01p · L 7:18p	H 12:35a · L 5:27a · H 1:03p · L 6:27p
Fri 9/18	H 2:50a · L 9:13a · H 3:23p · L 10:19p	H 1:28a · L 7:09a · H 1:51p · L 8:22p	H 1:25a · L 6:15a · H 1:54p · L 7:44p
Sat 9/19	H 3:50a · L 10:12a · H 4:27p · L 11:14p	H 2:21a · L 8:16a · H 2:43p · L 9:28p	H 2:16a · L 7:20a · H 2:47p · L 9:27p
Sun 9/20	H 4:56a · L 11:10a · H 5:30p	H 3:16a · L 9:28a · H 3:38p · L 10:26p	H 3:10a · L 8:43a · H 3:47p · L 10:27p

Montauk (Ditch)

Sandy Hook (Rockaway)

Newport (RI)

Sat 9/12

L 4:29a · H 10:15a · L 5:01p · H 10:37p

L 3:13a · H 9:16a · L 3:33p · H 9:30p

L 2:30a · H 9:14a · L 2:58p · H 9:34p

Sun 9/13

L 5:08a · H 11:01a · L 5:48p · H 11:23p

L 3:53a · H 9:58a · L 4:17p · H 10:13p

L 3:01a · H 9:58a · L 3:38p · H 10:17p

Mon 9/14

L 5:48a · H 11:47a · L 6:38p

L 4:30a · H 10:41a · L 4:58p · H 10:58p

L 3:34a · H 10:42a · L 4:16p · H 11:01p

Tue 9/15

H 12:12a · L 6:31a · H 12:37p · L 7:32p

L 5:06a · H 11:25a · L 5:40p · H 11:45p

L 4:09a · H 11:27a · L 4:54p · H 11:47p

Wed 9/16

H 1:03a · L 7:20a · H 1:29p · L 8:27p

L 5:41a · H 12:12p · L 6:25p

L 4:46a · H 12:14p · L 5:36p

Thu 9/17

H 1:56a · L 8:16a · H 2:24p · L 9:23p

H 12:36a · L 6:20a · H 1:01p · L 7:18p

H 12:35a · L 5:27a · H 1:03p · L 6:27p

Fri 9/18

H 2:50a · L 9:13a · H 3:23p · L 10:19p

H 1:28a · L 7:09a · H 1:51p · L 8:22p

H 1:25a · L 6:15a · H 1:54p · L 7:44p

Sat 9/19

H 3:50a · L 10:12a · H 4:27p · L 11:14p

H 2:21a · L 8:16a · H 2:43p · L 9:28p

H 2:16a · L 7:20a · H 2:47p · L 9:27p

Sun 9/20

H 4:56a · L 11:10a · H 5:30p

H 3:16a · L 9:28a · H 3:38p · L 10:26p

H 3:10a · L 8:43a · H 3:47p · L 10:27p

NHC 8 AM EDT — tropical cyclone formation not expected in the next 7 days; no development areas. Water 70–74°F. Strengthening El Niño (>90% chance of a very strong event fall/winter 2026–27) keeps suppressing the late hurricane season; the fall nor'easter season is the one to watch — GFS hints a coastal low ~Tue 9/22 (see far cast), ECMWF disagrees.

NWS forecast discussion (human forecaster):
OKX 7:36 AM: tranquil today gives way to a southern-stream shortwave tapping tropical moisture — showers with heavy downpours, a few t-storms, isolated/scattered flash flooding late tonight into Sun AM. Flood Watch: NYC metro/NE NJ 2–10 AM Sun; Long Island/coastal CT 5 AM–2 PM Sun. BOX 7:21 AM: Flood Watch for RI + SE MA Sunday — showers with pockets of torrential rain early Sun AM into the afternoon. Marine: E 5–10 kt → SE this afternoon, seas ~2 ft; Sun S 10–15 kt gust 20 with t-storms, seas 2–3 ft; Mon NW 10–15 kt gust 25 behind the front.

Surf Report — Sat Sep 12, 2026

1 · Long-range outlook (all days)

2 · The grid — 10 days × 4 spots (fused call)

3 · Surfline grid — LOTUS model

4 · Commentary

5 · Raw data

6 · Scorecard