All 10 gold miners in this study carry market capitalizations above $10 billion as of May 2026. The sector delivered historic 2025 results at an average gold price of ~$3,445/oz. This report models a full 6 × 5 scenario matrix across oil prices from $70/bbl (base) through $90, $110, $120, $150, and $200/bbl, crossed against five gold price bands from $3,500–$4,000 up to the extreme $5,500–$6,000/oz case.[^1][^2][^3][^4]
Key structural finding: Even at a worst-case $200/bbl oil scenario, the maximum AISC uplift across all companies is only $181/oz (Endeavour Mining). Against $5,750 gold (mid-point of the $5,500–$6,000 band), that leaves a margin of $4,136/oz — the oil shock is economically immaterial compared to gold price leverage. At $5,500–$6,000 gold, Newmont could generate ~$20.9B FCF (18.2% FCF yield), Endeavour ~$3.9B (28.6%), and Gold Fields ~$8.6B (24.7%) at base oil.
| Company | Ticker | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|
| Newmont | NEM | ~$115B |
| Agnico Eagle | AEM | ~$88B |
| Barrick | GOLD | ~$80B |
| AngloGold Ashanti | AU | ~$45.8B |
| Gold Fields | GFI | ~$34.8B |
| Kinross | KGC | ~$33.9B |
| Lundin Gold | LUGDF | ~$20.6B[^4] |
| Coeur Mining | CDE | ~$18.2B[^3] |
| Endeavour Mining | EDVMF | ~$13.8B[^2] |
| Alamos Gold | AGI | ~$12.8B |
The Strait of Hormuz carries approximately 21 million barrels of oil per day — roughly 20% of global petroleum liquids trade. A closure would simultaneously disrupt tanker routes from Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, and Iran. For mining companies, diesel is the primary exposure (15–30% of open-pit site operating costs), followed by cyanide, ANFO explosives, and freight.[^5][^6][^7]
| Mine Type | Diesel as % of Site Opex | AISC Sensitivity per $10/bbl |
|---|---|---|
| Large open-pit (shallow / heap leach) | 22–30% | $6–$10/oz |
| Large open-pit (deep / high haul) | 25–35% | $8–$12/oz |
| Underground bulk | 8–14% | $2–$5/oz |
| Underground high-grade (narrow-vein) | 4–8% | $1–$3/oz |
Historically, Hormuz disruptions drive gold and oil in the same direction. During the 2019 Abqaiq attacks, gold gained ~3% while oil spiked 15%. A full Hormuz closure historically coincides with gold rallying $200–500/oz as risk-off demand surges. This means the oil cost headwind modeled here is typically more than offset by the gold price tailwind, making crisis scenarios net-positive for gold miners.
| Company | Prod. (Moz) | AISC 2025 | TCC | Sust. Capex/oz | FCF 2025 | FCF Yield | EV/EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lundin Gold (LUGDF) | 0.498 | $1,015 | $838 | $177 | $926M | 6.1% | 12.0x |
| Agnico Eagle (AEM) | 3.447 | $1,339 | $979 | $334 | $4,399M | 5.0% | 12.0x |
| Newmont (NEM) | 5.9 | $1,358 | $957 | $331 | $7,300M | 6.3% | 7.1x |
| Kinross (KGC) | 2.152 | $1,372 | $998 | $372 | $1,050M | 3.1% | 7.0x |
| Endeavour (EDVMF) | 1.209 | $1,433 | $1,216 | $174 | $1,156M | 6.0% | 8.0x |
| Coeur (CDE) | 0.419 | $1,500 | $1,347 | $387 | $666M | 3.7% | 18.0x |
| Alamos Gold (AGI) | 0.545 | $1,524 | $1,044 | $480 | $352M | 2.8% | 14.0x |
| Barrick (GOLD) | 3.255 | $1,637 | $1,199 | $582 | $3,868M | 4.8% | 9.0x |
| Gold Fields (GFI) | 2.44 | $1,645 | N/A | $324 | $2,970M | 8.5% | 7.0x |
| AngloGold (AU) | 3.1 | $1,670 | $1,242 | $428 | $2,900M | 6.3% | 8.0x |
Sources: Barrick; Agnico Eagle; Kinross; Newmont; Lundin Gold; Endeavour; Coeur; AngloGold; Gold Fields[^8][^9][^10][^11][^12][^13][^14][^15]
Each cell shows: Estimated FCF ($M) | FCF Yield (%)
FCF estimated as: FY2025 base FCF + (gold price change from $3,445 avg × production) − (oil AISC uplift × production).[^8][^7][^9][^16][^10][^11][^12][^13][^14][^15]
Gold price mid-points: $3,750 / $4,250 / $4,750 / $5,250 / $5,750 per oz. Oil uplift per scenario scaled by diesel intensity vs 18% open-pit benchmark.
| Company | $3,500–$4,000 | $4,000–$4,500 | $4,500–$5,000 | $5,000–$5,500 | $5,500–$6,000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lundin Gold | $1,078M (5.2%) | $1,327M (6.4%) | $1,576M (7.7%) | $1,825M (8.9%) | $2,074M (10.1%) |
| Agnico Eagle | $5,450M (6.2%) | $7,174M (8.2%) | $8,897M (10.1%) | $10,621M (12.1%) | $12,344M (14.0%) |
| Kinross | $1,706M (5.0%) | $2,782M (8.2%) | $3,858M (11.4%) | $4,934M (14.6%) | $6,010M (17.7%) |
| Newmont | $9,100M (7.9%) | $12,050M (10.5%) | $15,000M (13.0%) | $17,950M (15.6%) | $20,900M (18.2%) |
| Endeavour | $1,525M (11.1%) | $2,129M (15.4%) | $2,734M (19.8%) | $3,339M (24.2%) | $3,943M (28.6%) |
| Coeur | $794M (4.4%) | $1,003M (5.5%) | $1,213M (6.7%) | $1,422M (7.8%) | $1,632M (9.0%) |
| Alamos Gold | $518M (4.0%) | $791M (6.2%) | $1,063M (8.3%) | $1,336M (10.4%) | $1,608M (12.6%) |
| Barrick | $4,861M (6.1%) | $6,488M (8.1%) | $8,116M (10.1%) | $9,743M (12.2%) | $11,371M (14.2%) |
| Gold Fields | $3,714M (10.7%) | $4,934M (14.2%) | $6,154M (17.7%) | $7,374M (21.2%) | $8,594M (24.7%) |
| AngloGold | $3,846M (8.4%) | $5,396M (11.8%) | $6,946M (15.2%) | $8,496M (18.5%) | $10,046M (21.9%) |
| Company | AISC | $3,500–$4,000 | $4,000–$4,500 | $4,500–$5,000 | $5,000–$5,500 | $5,500–$6,000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lundin Gold | $1,021 | $1,075M (5.2%) | $1,324M (6.4%) | $1,573M (7.6%) | $1,822M (8.9%) | $2,071M (10.1%) |
| Agnico Eagle | $1,352 | $5,406M (6.1%) | $7,129M (8.1%) | $8,853M (10.1%) | $10,576M (12.0%) | $12,300M (14.0%) |
| Kinross | $1,392 | $1,663M (4.9%) | $2,739M (8.1%) | $3,815M (11.3%) | $4,891M (14.4%) | $5,967M (17.6%) |
| Newmont | $1,378 | $8,982M (7.8%) | $11,932M (10.4%) | $14,882M (12.9%) | $17,832M (15.5%) | $20,782M (18.1%) |
| Endeavour | $1,461 | $1,491M (10.8%) | $2,095M (15.2%) | $2,700M (19.6%) | $3,304M (23.9%) | $3,909M (28.3%) |
| Coeur | $1,518 | $786M (4.3%) | $996M (5.5%) | $1,205M (6.6%) | $1,415M (7.8%) | $1,624M (8.9%) |
| Alamos Gold | $1,540 | $510M (4.0%) | $782M (6.1%) | $1,055M (8.2%) | $1,327M (10.4%) | $1,600M (12.5%) |
| Barrick | $1,656 | $4,799M (6.0%) | $6,426M (8.0%) | $8,054M (10.1%) | $9,681M (12.1%) | $11,309M (14.1%) |
| Gold Fields | $1,669 | $3,656M (10.5%) | $4,876M (14.0%) | $6,096M (17.5%) | $7,316M (21.0%) | $8,536M (24.5%) |
| AngloGold | $1,692 | $3,777M (8.2%) | $5,327M (11.6%) | $6,877M (15.0%) | $8,427M (18.4%) | $9,977M (21.8%) |
| Company | AISC | $3,500–$4,000 | $4,000–$4,500 | $4,500–$5,000 | $5,000–$5,500 | $5,500–$6,000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lundin Gold | $1,026 | $1,072M (5.2%) | $1,321M (6.4%) | $1,570M (7.6%) | $1,819M (8.8%) | $2,068M (10.0%) |
| Agnico Eagle | $1,366 | $5,357M (6.1%) | $7,081M (8.0%) | $8,804M (10.0%) | $10,527M (12.0%) | $12,251M (13.9%) |
| Kinross | $1,412 | $1,620M (4.8%) | $2,696M (8.0%) | $3,772M (11.1%) | $4,848M (14.3%) | $5,924M (17.5%) |
| Newmont | $1,398 | $8,864M (7.7%) | $11,814M (10.3%) | $14,764M (12.8%) | $17,714M (15.4%) | $20,664M (18.0%) |
| Endeavour | $1,489 | $1,457M (10.6%) | $2,062M (14.9%) | $2,666M (19.3%) | $3,271M (23.7%) | $3,875M (28.1%) |
| Coeur | $1,536 | $779M (4.3%) | $988M (5.4%) | $1,198M (6.6%) | $1,407M (7.7%) | $1,617M (8.9%) |
| Alamos Gold | $1,555 | $501M (3.9%) | $774M (6.0%) | $1,046M (8.2%) | $1,319M (10.3%) | $1,591M (12.4%) |
| Barrick | $1,675 | $4,737M (5.9%) | $6,365M (8.0%) | $7,992M (10.0%) | $9,620M (12.0%) | $11,247M (14.1%) |
| Gold Fields | $1,694 | $3,595M (10.3%) | $4,815M (13.8%) | $6,035M (17.3%) | $7,255M (20.9%) | $8,475M (24.4%) |
| AngloGold | $1,714 | $3,709M (8.1%) | $5,259M (11.5%) | $6,809M (14.9%) | $8,359M (18.3%) | $9,909M (21.6%) |
| Company | AISC | $3,500–$4,000 | $4,000–$4,500 | $4,500–$5,000 | $5,000–$5,500 | $5,500–$6,000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lundin Gold | $1,029 | $1,071M (5.2%) | $1,320M (6.4%) | $1,569M (7.6%) | $1,818M (8.8%) | $2,067M (10.0%) |
| Agnico Eagle | $1,372 | $5,337M (6.1%) | $7,060M (8.0%) | $8,784M (10.0%) | $10,507M (11.9%) | $12,231M (13.9%) |
| Kinross | $1,422 | $1,599M (4.7%) | $2,675M (7.9%) | $3,751M (11.1%) | $4,827M (14.2%) | $5,903M (17.4%) |
| Newmont | $1,408 | $8,804M (7.7%) | $11,754M (10.2%) | $14,704M (12.8%) | $17,654M (15.4%) | $20,604M (17.9%) |
| Endeavour | $1,502 | $1,441M (10.4%) | $2,046M (14.8%) | $2,650M (19.2%) | $3,255M (23.6%) | $3,859M (28.0%) |
| Coeur | $1,544 | $775M (4.3%) | $985M (5.4%) | $1,194M (6.6%) | $1,404M (7.7%) | $1,613M (8.9%) |
| Alamos Gold | $1,563 | $497M (3.9%) | $769M (6.0%) | $1,042M (8.1%) | $1,314M (10.3%) | $1,587M (12.4%) |
| Barrick | $1,684 | $4,708M (5.9%) | $6,335M (7.9%) | $7,963M (10.0%) | $9,590M (12.0%) | $11,218M (14.0%) |
| Gold Fields | $1,706 | $3,565M (10.2%) | $4,785M (13.8%) | $6,005M (17.3%) | $7,225M (20.8%) | $8,445M (24.3%) |
| AngloGold | $1,726 | $3,672M (8.0%) | $5,222M (11.4%) | $6,772M (14.8%) | $8,322M (18.2%) | $9,872M (21.6%) |
| Company | AISC | $3,500–$4,000 | $4,000–$4,500 | $4,500–$5,000 | $5,000–$5,500 | $5,500–$6,000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lundin Gold | $1,037 | $1,065M (5.2%) | $1,314M (6.4%) | $1,563M (7.6%) | $1,812M (8.8%) | $2,063M (10.0%) |
| Agnico Eagle | $1,406 | $5,208M (5.9%) | $6,932M (7.9%) | $8,655M (9.8%) | $10,379M (11.8%) | $12,162M (13.8%) |
| Kinross | $1,452 | $1,534M (4.5%) | $2,610M (7.7%) | $3,686M (10.9%) | $4,762M (14.0%) | $5,838M (17.2%) |
| Newmont | $1,438 | $8,628M (7.5%) | $11,578M (10.1%) | $14,528M (12.6%) | $17,478M (15.2%) | $20,428M (17.8%) |
| Endeavour | $1,544 | $1,361M (9.9%) | $1,966M (14.2%) | $2,570M (18.6%) | $3,175M (23.0%) | $3,809M (27.6%) |
| Coeur | $1,571 | $763M (4.2%) | $972M (5.3%) | $1,182M (6.5%) | $1,392M (7.6%) | $1,602M (8.8%) |
| Alamos Gold | $1,597 | $472M (3.7%) | $744M (5.8%) | $1,017M (7.9%) | $1,289M (10.1%) | $1,574M (12.3%) |
| Barrick | $1,713 | $4,651M (5.8%) | $6,279M (7.8%) | $7,906M (9.9%) | $9,534M (11.9%) | $11,123M (13.9%) |
| Gold Fields | $1,742 | $3,492M (10.0%) | $4,712M (13.5%) | $5,932M (17.0%) | $7,152M (20.6%) | $8,355M (24.0%) |
| AngloGold | $1,758 | $3,588M (7.8%) | $5,138M (11.2%) | $6,688M (14.6%) | $8,238M (18.0%) | $9,770M (21.3%) |
| Company | AISC | $3,500–$4,000 | $4,000–$4,500 | $4,500–$5,000 | $5,000–$5,500 | $5,500–$6,000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lundin Gold | $1,051 | $1,060M (5.1%) | $1,309M (6.4%) | $1,558M (7.6%) | $1,807M (8.8%) | $2,056M (10.0%) |
| Agnico Eagle | $1,426 | $5,150M (5.9%) | $6,874M (7.8%) | $8,597M (9.8%) | $10,321M (11.7%) | $12,044M (13.7%) |
| Kinross | $1,502 | $1,427M (4.2%) | $2,503M (7.4%) | $3,579M (10.6%) | $4,655M (13.7%) | $5,731M (16.9%) |
| Newmont | $1,488 | $8,332M (7.2%) | $11,282M (9.8%) | $14,232M (12.4%) | $17,182M (14.9%) | $20,132M (17.5%) |
| Endeavour | $1,614 | $1,306M (9.5%) | $1,910M (13.8%) | $2,515M (18.2%) | $3,119M (22.6%) | $3,724M (27.0%) |
| Coeur | $1,616 | $745M (4.1%) | $955M (5.2%) | $1,164M (6.4%) | $1,374M (7.5%) | $1,583M (8.7%) |
| Alamos Gold | $1,625 | $463M (3.6%) | $736M (5.8%) | $1,008M (7.9%) | $1,281M (10.0%) | $1,553M (12.1%) |
| Barrick | $1,760 | $4,460M (5.6%) | $6,088M (7.6%) | $7,715M (9.6%) | $9,343M (11.7%) | $10,970M (13.7%) |
| Gold Fields | $1,804 | $3,326M (9.6%) | $4,546M (13.1%) | $5,766M (16.6%) | $6,986M (20.1%) | $8,206M (23.6%) |
| AngloGold | $1,814 | $3,399M (7.4%) | $4,949M (10.8%) | $6,499M (14.2%) | $8,049M (17.6%) | $9,599M (21.0%) |
The diesel exposure ranking and total AISC uplift from $70 to $200/bbl:
| Company | Diesel Exp. | AISC Base | AISC @$90 | AISC @$110 | AISC @$120 | AISC @$150 | AISC @$200 | Total Uplift |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lundin Gold | 5% | $1,015 | $1,021 | $1,026 | $1,029 | $1,037 | $1,051 | +$36 |
| Agnico Eagle | 12% | $1,339 | $1,352 | $1,366 | $1,372 | $1,406 | $1,426 | +$87 |
| Alamos Gold | 14% | $1,524 | $1,540 | $1,555 | $1,563 | $1,597 | $1,625 | +$101 |
| Coeur | 16% | $1,500 | $1,518 | $1,536 | $1,544 | $1,571 | $1,616 | +$116 |
| Barrick | 17% | $1,637 | $1,656 | $1,675 | $1,684 | $1,713 | $1,760 | +$123 |
| Kinross | 18% | $1,372 | $1,392 | $1,412 | $1,422 | $1,452 | $1,502 | +$130 |
| Newmont | 18% | $1,358 | $1,378 | $1,398 | $1,408 | $1,438 | $1,488 | +$130 |
| AngloGold | 20% | $1,670 | $1,692 | $1,714 | $1,726 | $1,758 | $1,814 | +$144 |
| Gold Fields | 22% | $1,645 | $1,669 | $1,694 | $1,706 | $1,742 | $1,804 | +$159 |
| Endeavour | 25% | $1,433 | $1,461 | $1,489 | $1,502 | $1,544 | $1,614 | +$181 |
Source: Diesel intensity benchmarks from World Bank/Roskill; company FY2025 operating cost disclosures.[^7][^13][^15]
Moving from the $3,500–$4,000 gold band to the $5,500–$6,000 band adds $2,000/oz (mid to mid). For Newmont at 5.9 Moz, that is +$11.8B in FCF versus the maximum oil headwind of only −$0.97B at $200/bbl. Gold moves the needle 12× more than oil for Newmont alone.[^10]
At the new $5,500–$6,000 gold band (mid $5,750/oz) with base oil:
Even at $200/bbl oil, the $5,500–$6,000 gold band still produces:
The minimum FCF yield in this scenario is Alamos Gold at 3.6% and Coeur Mining at 4.1%. Every other company generates above 5.0%, and majors (Newmont, Agnico Eagle, Barrick) remain between 5.6–7.2%. No company faces negative FCF under any modeled scenario.
Lundin's FCF yield barely moves across all oil scenarios: 5.2% at $3,500–$4,000 gold regardless of whether oil is $70 or $200. Only 5% diesel exposure (Ecuador grid access) makes it structurally immune to any Hormuz shock. However, at $5,500–$6,000 gold, Lundin still reaches only 10.0–10.1% FCF yield — its 0.498 Moz production limits absolute upside relative to larger peers.[^9]
| Input | Gulf Concentration | Impact at $110+ | Most-Exposed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Diesel fuel | ~20% global via Hormuz | +$40–56/oz open-pit | Endeavour, Gold Fields, AngloGold |
| Cyanide (NaCN) | Gulf gas / China-heavy | +$5–12/oz | All heap leach + CIL operators |
| ANFO explosives | Ammonia (gas-based) | +$3–8/oz | All open-pit operators |
| Spare parts / freight | Global container | +$5–15/oz | Remote / offshore mines |
| Grid electricity | Country-specific | +$3–10/oz | South Africa (Eskom), Ghana |
Key company resilience notes:
| Company | 2025 AISC | 2026 Guidance | Change | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lundin Gold | $1,015 | $1,050–$1,150 | +3–13% | Higher royalties[^9] |
| Agnico Eagle | $1,339 | $1,400–$1,550 | +5–16% | Detour underground + royalties[^15] |
| Kinross | $1,372 | $1,380–$1,480 | +1–8% | Broadly stable; Great Bear growth[^12] |
| Newmont | $1,358 | ~$1,680 | +24% | Post-divestiture normalization[^10] |
| Alamos Gold | $1,524 | $1,400–$1,500 | -2 to -8% | Magino ramp efficiency gains[^16] |
| Endeavour | $1,433 | $1,600–$1,800 | +12–26% | Lower grades, deeper sequencing[^13] |
| Barrick | $1,637 | $1,760–$1,950 | +8–19% | Lower production + capex inflation |
| Gold Fields | $1,645 | $1,750–$1,950 | +6–19% | Windfall Canada development[^8] |
| AngloGold | $1,670 | $1,780–$1,990 | +7–19% | Sukari integration + royalties[^11] |
| Coeur Mining | $1,500 | Record expected | TBD | New Gold acquisition integration[^14] |
| Rank | Company | Best scenario (base oil) | At $200/bbl + $5,500–$6,000 gold |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Agnico Eagle (AEM) | $5,500–$6,000 gold: $12.3B / 14.0% yield[^15] | $12.0B / 13.7% — oil barely moves the needle |
| 2 | Lundin Gold (LUGDF) | $5,500–$6,000 gold: $2.1B / 10.1% yield[^9] | $2.1B / 10.0% — structurally oil-immune |
| 3 | Endeavour (EDVMF) | $5,500–$6,000 gold: $3.9B / 28.6% yield[^13] | $3.7B / 27.0% — highest FCF yield in sector |
| 4 | Gold Fields (GFI) | $5,500–$6,000 gold: $8.6B / 24.7% yield[^8] | $8.2B / 23.6% |
| 5 | Newmont (NEM) | $5,500–$6,000 gold: $20.9B / 18.2% yield[^10] | $20.1B / 17.5% — scale champion |
| 6 | AngloGold (AU) | $5,500–$6,000 gold: $10.0B / 21.9% yield[^11] | $9.6B / 21.0% |
| 7 | Kinross (KGC) | $5,500–$6,000 gold: $6.0B / 17.7% yield[^12] | $5.7B / 16.9% |
| 8 | Barrick (GOLD) | $5,500–$6,000 gold: $11.4B / 14.2% yield | $11.0B / 13.7% |
| 9 | Alamos Gold (AGI) | $5,500–$6,000 gold: $1.6B / 12.6% yield[^16] | $1.6B / 12.1% |
| 10 | Coeur Mining (CDE) | $5,500–$6,000 gold: $1.6B / 9.0% yield[^14] | $1.6B / 8.7% — best Hormuz insulation |
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Gold Fields FY 2025 presentation: 391% cash flow surge drives ... - Gold Fields delivered exceptional financial results in 2025, with headline earnings reaching US$2.58...
Lundin Gold Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Results - Lundin Gold Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Results
[PDF] Newmont Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 ... - Fortune - Sustaining Capital ($M). Managed Portfolio. $1,660. Non-Managed Portfolio. $290. Total Newmont Susta...
AngloGold Ashanti Q4 and Year Ended 31 December 2025 Earnings Release and Dividend Declaration - LONDON & DENVER & JOHANNESBURG, February 20, 2026--AngloGold Ashanti plc's(2) delivered record free ...
Kinross Gold Q4 2025 Results and Full-Year Earnings Call Summary - Kinross Delivers Record Quarterly Free Cash Flow of US$412 Million and Full-Year Production of 2.15 ...
Endeavour Reports Strong FY-2025 Results - ENDEAVOUR REPORTS STRONG FY-2025 RESULTSRecord 2025 free cash flow of $1,156m l Record 2025 sharehol...
Coeur Reports Fourth Quarter and Full-Year 2025 Results - Sustaining capital expenditures (excludes capital lease payments). $. 38.1. $. 13.8. $. 9.8. $. 9.2....
Agnico Eagle Mines Q4 Results and Full-Year Earnings Call Summary - Agnico Eagle Q4 2025 earnings report and full-year results show record free cash flow and production...
Alamos Gold Reports Fourth Quarter and Year-End 2025 Results - For the full year, total cash costs of $1,044 per ounce and mine-site AISC of $1,473 per ounce were ...