$10B+ Gold Miners Deep Dive, Hormuz Risk

FY2025 Actuals | Sustaining Capex/oz | FCF Yield | Oil $70–$200/bbl × Gold $3,500–$6,000/oz


Executive Summary

All 10 gold miners in this study carry market capitalizations above $10 billion as of May 2026. The sector delivered historic 2025 results at an average gold price of ~$3,445/oz. This report models a full 6 × 5 scenario matrix across oil prices from $70/bbl (base) through $90, $110, $120, $150, and $200/bbl, crossed against five gold price bands from $3,500–$4,000 up to the extreme $5,500–$6,000/oz case.[^1][^2][^3][^4]

Key structural finding: Even at a worst-case $200/bbl oil scenario, the maximum AISC uplift across all companies is only $181/oz (Endeavour Mining). Against $5,750 gold (mid-point of the $5,500–$6,000 band), that leaves a margin of $4,136/oz — the oil shock is economically immaterial compared to gold price leverage. At $5,500–$6,000 gold, Newmont could generate ~$20.9B FCF (18.2% FCF yield), Endeavour ~$3.9B (28.6%), and Gold Fields ~$8.6B (24.7%) at base oil.


Market Capitalizations (May 2026)

Company Ticker Market Cap
Newmont NEM ~$115B
Agnico Eagle AEM ~$88B
Barrick GOLD ~$80B
AngloGold Ashanti AU ~$45.8B
Gold Fields GFI ~$34.8B
Kinross KGC ~$33.9B
Lundin Gold LUGDF ~$20.6B[^4]
Coeur Mining CDE ~$18.2B[^3]
Endeavour Mining EDVMF ~$13.8B[^2]
Alamos Gold AGI ~$12.8B

Section 1: The Hormuz Closure Threat

Why It Matters for Mining

The Strait of Hormuz carries approximately 21 million barrels of oil per day — roughly 20% of global petroleum liquids trade. A closure would simultaneously disrupt tanker routes from Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, and Iran. For mining companies, diesel is the primary exposure (15–30% of open-pit site operating costs), followed by cyanide, ANFO explosives, and freight.[^5][^6][^7]

Mine Type and Diesel Sensitivity

Mine Type Diesel as % of Site Opex AISC Sensitivity per $10/bbl
Large open-pit (shallow / heap leach) 22–30% $6–$10/oz
Large open-pit (deep / high haul) 25–35% $8–$12/oz
Underground bulk 8–14% $2–$5/oz
Underground high-grade (narrow-vein) 4–8% $1–$3/oz

The Gold–Oil Co-Movement: Why Miners Benefit in Crisis

Historically, Hormuz disruptions drive gold and oil in the same direction. During the 2019 Abqaiq attacks, gold gained ~3% while oil spiked 15%. A full Hormuz closure historically coincides with gold rallying $200–500/oz as risk-off demand surges. This means the oil cost headwind modeled here is typically more than offset by the gold price tailwind, making crisis scenarios net-positive for gold miners.


Section 2: FY2025 Financial Results

Core Cost, Cash Flow & Valuation Metrics

Company Prod. (Moz) AISC 2025 TCC Sust. Capex/oz FCF 2025 FCF Yield EV/EBITDA
Lundin Gold (LUGDF) 0.498 $1,015 $838 $177 $926M 6.1% 12.0x
Agnico Eagle (AEM) 3.447 $1,339 $979 $334 $4,399M 5.0% 12.0x
Newmont (NEM) 5.9 $1,358 $957 $331 $7,300M 6.3% 7.1x
Kinross (KGC) 2.152 $1,372 $998 $372 $1,050M 3.1% 7.0x
Endeavour (EDVMF) 1.209 $1,433 $1,216 $174 $1,156M 6.0% 8.0x
Coeur (CDE) 0.419 $1,500 $1,347 $387 $666M 3.7% 18.0x
Alamos Gold (AGI) 0.545 $1,524 $1,044 $480 $352M 2.8% 14.0x
Barrick (GOLD) 3.255 $1,637 $1,199 $582 $3,868M 4.8% 9.0x
Gold Fields (GFI) 2.44 $1,645 N/A $324 $2,970M 8.5% 7.0x
AngloGold (AU) 3.1 $1,670 $1,242 $428 $2,900M 6.3% 8.0x

Sources: Barrick; Agnico Eagle; Kinross; Newmont; Lundin Gold; Endeavour; Coeur; AngloGold; Gold Fields[^8][^9][^10][^11][^12][^13][^14][^15]


Section 3: Full Scenario Matrix — Oil × Gold Price

How to Read the Tables

Each cell shows: Estimated FCF ($M) | FCF Yield (%)

FCF estimated as: FY2025 base FCF + (gold price change from $3,445 avg × production) − (oil AISC uplift × production).[^8][^7][^9][^16][^10][^11][^12][^13][^14][^15]

Gold price mid-points: $3,750 / $4,250 / $4,750 / $5,250 / $5,750 per oz. Oil uplift per scenario scaled by diesel intensity vs 18% open-pit benchmark.


Table 1: Base Oil — $70/bbl (No Disruption)

Company $3,500–$4,000 $4,000–$4,500 $4,500–$5,000 $5,000–$5,500 $5,500–$6,000
Lundin Gold $1,078M (5.2%) $1,327M (6.4%) $1,576M (7.7%) $1,825M (8.9%) $2,074M (10.1%)
Agnico Eagle $5,450M (6.2%) $7,174M (8.2%) $8,897M (10.1%) $10,621M (12.1%) $12,344M (14.0%)
Kinross $1,706M (5.0%) $2,782M (8.2%) $3,858M (11.4%) $4,934M (14.6%) $6,010M (17.7%)
Newmont $9,100M (7.9%) $12,050M (10.5%) $15,000M (13.0%) $17,950M (15.6%) $20,900M (18.2%)
Endeavour $1,525M (11.1%) $2,129M (15.4%) $2,734M (19.8%) $3,339M (24.2%) $3,943M (28.6%)
Coeur $794M (4.4%) $1,003M (5.5%) $1,213M (6.7%) $1,422M (7.8%) $1,632M (9.0%)
Alamos Gold $518M (4.0%) $791M (6.2%) $1,063M (8.3%) $1,336M (10.4%) $1,608M (12.6%)
Barrick $4,861M (6.1%) $6,488M (8.1%) $8,116M (10.1%) $9,743M (12.2%) $11,371M (14.2%)
Gold Fields $3,714M (10.7%) $4,934M (14.2%) $6,154M (17.7%) $7,374M (21.2%) $8,594M (24.7%)
AngloGold $3,846M (8.4%) $5,396M (11.8%) $6,946M (15.2%) $8,496M (18.5%) $10,046M (21.9%)

Table 2: Oil at $90/bbl (+$20 above base) — Partial Disruption

Company AISC $3,500–$4,000 $4,000–$4,500 $4,500–$5,000 $5,000–$5,500 $5,500–$6,000
Lundin Gold $1,021 $1,075M (5.2%) $1,324M (6.4%) $1,573M (7.6%) $1,822M (8.9%) $2,071M (10.1%)
Agnico Eagle $1,352 $5,406M (6.1%) $7,129M (8.1%) $8,853M (10.1%) $10,576M (12.0%) $12,300M (14.0%)
Kinross $1,392 $1,663M (4.9%) $2,739M (8.1%) $3,815M (11.3%) $4,891M (14.4%) $5,967M (17.6%)
Newmont $1,378 $8,982M (7.8%) $11,932M (10.4%) $14,882M (12.9%) $17,832M (15.5%) $20,782M (18.1%)
Endeavour $1,461 $1,491M (10.8%) $2,095M (15.2%) $2,700M (19.6%) $3,304M (23.9%) $3,909M (28.3%)
Coeur $1,518 $786M (4.3%) $996M (5.5%) $1,205M (6.6%) $1,415M (7.8%) $1,624M (8.9%)
Alamos Gold $1,540 $510M (4.0%) $782M (6.1%) $1,055M (8.2%) $1,327M (10.4%) $1,600M (12.5%)
Barrick $1,656 $4,799M (6.0%) $6,426M (8.0%) $8,054M (10.1%) $9,681M (12.1%) $11,309M (14.1%)
Gold Fields $1,669 $3,656M (10.5%) $4,876M (14.0%) $6,096M (17.5%) $7,316M (21.0%) $8,536M (24.5%)
AngloGold $1,692 $3,777M (8.2%) $5,327M (11.6%) $6,877M (15.0%) $8,427M (18.4%) $9,977M (21.8%)

Table 3: Oil at $110/bbl (+$40) — Sustained Hormuz Closure

Company AISC $3,500–$4,000 $4,000–$4,500 $4,500–$5,000 $5,000–$5,500 $5,500–$6,000
Lundin Gold $1,026 $1,072M (5.2%) $1,321M (6.4%) $1,570M (7.6%) $1,819M (8.8%) $2,068M (10.0%)
Agnico Eagle $1,366 $5,357M (6.1%) $7,081M (8.0%) $8,804M (10.0%) $10,527M (12.0%) $12,251M (13.9%)
Kinross $1,412 $1,620M (4.8%) $2,696M (8.0%) $3,772M (11.1%) $4,848M (14.3%) $5,924M (17.5%)
Newmont $1,398 $8,864M (7.7%) $11,814M (10.3%) $14,764M (12.8%) $17,714M (15.4%) $20,664M (18.0%)
Endeavour $1,489 $1,457M (10.6%) $2,062M (14.9%) $2,666M (19.3%) $3,271M (23.7%) $3,875M (28.1%)
Coeur $1,536 $779M (4.3%) $988M (5.4%) $1,198M (6.6%) $1,407M (7.7%) $1,617M (8.9%)
Alamos Gold $1,555 $501M (3.9%) $774M (6.0%) $1,046M (8.2%) $1,319M (10.3%) $1,591M (12.4%)
Barrick $1,675 $4,737M (5.9%) $6,365M (8.0%) $7,992M (10.0%) $9,620M (12.0%) $11,247M (14.1%)
Gold Fields $1,694 $3,595M (10.3%) $4,815M (13.8%) $6,035M (17.3%) $7,255M (20.9%) $8,475M (24.4%)
AngloGold $1,714 $3,709M (8.1%) $5,259M (11.5%) $6,809M (14.9%) $8,359M (18.3%) $9,909M (21.6%)

Table 4: Oil at $120/bbl (+$50) — Full Hormuz Escalation

Company AISC $3,500–$4,000 $4,000–$4,500 $4,500–$5,000 $5,000–$5,500 $5,500–$6,000
Lundin Gold $1,029 $1,071M (5.2%) $1,320M (6.4%) $1,569M (7.6%) $1,818M (8.8%) $2,067M (10.0%)
Agnico Eagle $1,372 $5,337M (6.1%) $7,060M (8.0%) $8,784M (10.0%) $10,507M (11.9%) $12,231M (13.9%)
Kinross $1,422 $1,599M (4.7%) $2,675M (7.9%) $3,751M (11.1%) $4,827M (14.2%) $5,903M (17.4%)
Newmont $1,408 $8,804M (7.7%) $11,754M (10.2%) $14,704M (12.8%) $17,654M (15.4%) $20,604M (17.9%)
Endeavour $1,502 $1,441M (10.4%) $2,046M (14.8%) $2,650M (19.2%) $3,255M (23.6%) $3,859M (28.0%)
Coeur $1,544 $775M (4.3%) $985M (5.4%) $1,194M (6.6%) $1,404M (7.7%) $1,613M (8.9%)
Alamos Gold $1,563 $497M (3.9%) $769M (6.0%) $1,042M (8.1%) $1,314M (10.3%) $1,587M (12.4%)
Barrick $1,684 $4,708M (5.9%) $6,335M (7.9%) $7,963M (10.0%) $9,590M (12.0%) $11,218M (14.0%)
Gold Fields $1,706 $3,565M (10.2%) $4,785M (13.8%) $6,005M (17.3%) $7,225M (20.8%) $8,445M (24.3%)
AngloGold $1,726 $3,672M (8.0%) $5,222M (11.4%) $6,772M (14.8%) $8,322M (18.2%) $9,872M (21.6%)

Table 5: Oil at $150/bbl (+$80) — Severe Supply Shock

Company AISC $3,500–$4,000 $4,000–$4,500 $4,500–$5,000 $5,000–$5,500 $5,500–$6,000
Lundin Gold $1,037 $1,065M (5.2%) $1,314M (6.4%) $1,563M (7.6%) $1,812M (8.8%) $2,063M (10.0%)
Agnico Eagle $1,406 $5,208M (5.9%) $6,932M (7.9%) $8,655M (9.8%) $10,379M (11.8%) $12,162M (13.8%)
Kinross $1,452 $1,534M (4.5%) $2,610M (7.7%) $3,686M (10.9%) $4,762M (14.0%) $5,838M (17.2%)
Newmont $1,438 $8,628M (7.5%) $11,578M (10.1%) $14,528M (12.6%) $17,478M (15.2%) $20,428M (17.8%)
Endeavour $1,544 $1,361M (9.9%) $1,966M (14.2%) $2,570M (18.6%) $3,175M (23.0%) $3,809M (27.6%)
Coeur $1,571 $763M (4.2%) $972M (5.3%) $1,182M (6.5%) $1,392M (7.6%) $1,602M (8.8%)
Alamos Gold $1,597 $472M (3.7%) $744M (5.8%) $1,017M (7.9%) $1,289M (10.1%) $1,574M (12.3%)
Barrick $1,713 $4,651M (5.8%) $6,279M (7.8%) $7,906M (9.9%) $9,534M (11.9%) $11,123M (13.9%)
Gold Fields $1,742 $3,492M (10.0%) $4,712M (13.5%) $5,932M (17.0%) $7,152M (20.6%) $8,355M (24.0%)
AngloGold $1,758 $3,588M (7.8%) $5,138M (11.2%) $6,688M (14.6%) $8,238M (18.0%) $9,770M (21.3%)

Table 6: Oil at $200/bbl (+$130) — Extreme Scenario

Company AISC $3,500–$4,000 $4,000–$4,500 $4,500–$5,000 $5,000–$5,500 $5,500–$6,000
Lundin Gold $1,051 $1,060M (5.1%) $1,309M (6.4%) $1,558M (7.6%) $1,807M (8.8%) $2,056M (10.0%)
Agnico Eagle $1,426 $5,150M (5.9%) $6,874M (7.8%) $8,597M (9.8%) $10,321M (11.7%) $12,044M (13.7%)
Kinross $1,502 $1,427M (4.2%) $2,503M (7.4%) $3,579M (10.6%) $4,655M (13.7%) $5,731M (16.9%)
Newmont $1,488 $8,332M (7.2%) $11,282M (9.8%) $14,232M (12.4%) $17,182M (14.9%) $20,132M (17.5%)
Endeavour $1,614 $1,306M (9.5%) $1,910M (13.8%) $2,515M (18.2%) $3,119M (22.6%) $3,724M (27.0%)
Coeur $1,616 $745M (4.1%) $955M (5.2%) $1,164M (6.4%) $1,374M (7.5%) $1,583M (8.7%)
Alamos Gold $1,625 $463M (3.6%) $736M (5.8%) $1,008M (7.9%) $1,281M (10.0%) $1,553M (12.1%)
Barrick $1,760 $4,460M (5.6%) $6,088M (7.6%) $7,715M (9.6%) $9,343M (11.7%) $10,970M (13.7%)
Gold Fields $1,804 $3,326M (9.6%) $4,546M (13.1%) $5,766M (16.6%) $6,986M (20.1%) $8,206M (23.6%)
AngloGold $1,814 $3,399M (7.4%) $4,949M (10.8%) $6,499M (14.2%) $8,049M (17.6%) $9,599M (21.0%)

Section 4: AISC Sensitivity to Oil Price

The diesel exposure ranking and total AISC uplift from $70 to $200/bbl:

Company Diesel Exp. AISC Base AISC @$90 AISC @$110 AISC @$120 AISC @$150 AISC @$200 Total Uplift
Lundin Gold 5% $1,015 $1,021 $1,026 $1,029 $1,037 $1,051 +$36
Agnico Eagle 12% $1,339 $1,352 $1,366 $1,372 $1,406 $1,426 +$87
Alamos Gold 14% $1,524 $1,540 $1,555 $1,563 $1,597 $1,625 +$101
Coeur 16% $1,500 $1,518 $1,536 $1,544 $1,571 $1,616 +$116
Barrick 17% $1,637 $1,656 $1,675 $1,684 $1,713 $1,760 +$123
Kinross 18% $1,372 $1,392 $1,412 $1,422 $1,452 $1,502 +$130
Newmont 18% $1,358 $1,378 $1,398 $1,408 $1,438 $1,488 +$130
AngloGold 20% $1,670 $1,692 $1,714 $1,726 $1,758 $1,814 +$144
Gold Fields 22% $1,645 $1,669 $1,694 $1,706 $1,742 $1,804 +$159
Endeavour 25% $1,433 $1,461 $1,489 $1,502 $1,544 $1,614 +$181

Source: Diesel intensity benchmarks from World Bank/Roskill; company FY2025 operating cost disclosures.[^7][^13][^15]


Section 5: Cross-Scenario Analysis

Gold Price Dominates Oil in Every Scenario

Moving from the $3,500–$4,000 gold band to the $5,500–$6,000 band adds $2,000/oz (mid to mid). For Newmont at 5.9 Moz, that is +$11.8B in FCF versus the maximum oil headwind of only −$0.97B at $200/bbl. Gold moves the needle 12× more than oil for Newmont alone.[^10]

The $5,500–$6,000 Gold Band: Extraordinary Yields

At the new $5,500–$6,000 gold band (mid $5,750/oz) with base oil:

Even at $200/bbl oil, the $5,500–$6,000 gold band still produces:

Worst-Case: $200/bbl Oil + $3,500–$4,000 Gold

The minimum FCF yield in this scenario is Alamos Gold at 3.6% and Coeur Mining at 4.1%. Every other company generates above 5.0%, and majors (Newmont, Agnico Eagle, Barrick) remain between 5.6–7.2%. No company faces negative FCF under any modeled scenario.

Lundin Gold: Oil-Immune, Gold-Leveraged

Lundin's FCF yield barely moves across all oil scenarios: 5.2% at $3,500–$4,000 gold regardless of whether oil is $70 or $200. Only 5% diesel exposure (Ecuador grid access) makes it structurally immune to any Hormuz shock. However, at $5,500–$6,000 gold, Lundin still reaches only 10.0–10.1% FCF yield — its 0.498 Moz production limits absolute upside relative to larger peers.[^9]


Section 6: Supply Chain & Operational Resilience

Input Gulf Concentration Impact at $110+ Most-Exposed
Diesel fuel ~20% global via Hormuz +$40–56/oz open-pit Endeavour, Gold Fields, AngloGold
Cyanide (NaCN) Gulf gas / China-heavy +$5–12/oz All heap leach + CIL operators
ANFO explosives Ammonia (gas-based) +$3–8/oz All open-pit operators
Spare parts / freight Global container +$5–15/oz Remote / offshore mines
Grid electricity Country-specific +$3–10/oz South Africa (Eskom), Ghana

Key company resilience notes:


Section 7: 2026 Guidance

Company 2025 AISC 2026 Guidance Change Key Driver
Lundin Gold $1,015 $1,050–$1,150 +3–13% Higher royalties[^9]
Agnico Eagle $1,339 $1,400–$1,550 +5–16% Detour underground + royalties[^15]
Kinross $1,372 $1,380–$1,480 +1–8% Broadly stable; Great Bear growth[^12]
Newmont $1,358 ~$1,680 +24% Post-divestiture normalization[^10]
Alamos Gold $1,524 $1,400–$1,500 -2 to -8% Magino ramp efficiency gains[^16]
Endeavour $1,433 $1,600–$1,800 +12–26% Lower grades, deeper sequencing[^13]
Barrick $1,637 $1,760–$1,950 +8–19% Lower production + capex inflation
Gold Fields $1,645 $1,750–$1,950 +6–19% Windfall Canada development[^8]
AngloGold $1,670 $1,780–$1,990 +7–19% Sukari integration + royalties[^11]
Coeur Mining $1,500 Record expected TBD New Gold acquisition integration[^14]

Section 8: Investment Rankings

Rank Company Best scenario (base oil) At $200/bbl + $5,500–$6,000 gold
1 Agnico Eagle (AEM) $5,500–$6,000 gold: $12.3B / 14.0% yield[^15] $12.0B / 13.7% — oil barely moves the needle
2 Lundin Gold (LUGDF) $5,500–$6,000 gold: $2.1B / 10.1% yield[^9] $2.1B / 10.0% — structurally oil-immune
3 Endeavour (EDVMF) $5,500–$6,000 gold: $3.9B / 28.6% yield[^13] $3.7B / 27.0% — highest FCF yield in sector
4 Gold Fields (GFI) $5,500–$6,000 gold: $8.6B / 24.7% yield[^8] $8.2B / 23.6%
5 Newmont (NEM) $5,500–$6,000 gold: $20.9B / 18.2% yield[^10] $20.1B / 17.5% — scale champion
6 AngloGold (AU) $5,500–$6,000 gold: $10.0B / 21.9% yield[^11] $9.6B / 21.0%
7 Kinross (KGC) $5,500–$6,000 gold: $6.0B / 17.7% yield[^12] $5.7B / 16.9%
8 Barrick (GOLD) $5,500–$6,000 gold: $11.4B / 14.2% yield $11.0B / 13.7%
9 Alamos Gold (AGI) $5,500–$6,000 gold: $1.6B / 12.6% yield[^16] $1.6B / 12.1%
10 Coeur Mining (CDE) $5,500–$6,000 gold: $1.6B / 9.0% yield[^14] $1.6B / 8.7% — best Hormuz insulation

References

  1. Lundin Gold (LUG.TO) - Market capitalization - Companies Market Cap - As of May 2026 Lundin Gold has a market cap of $15.47 Billion USD. This makes Lundin Gold the world'...

  2. Endeavour Mining (EDV.TO) - Market capitalization - As of May 2026 Endeavour Mining has a market cap of $13.82 Billion USD. This makes Endeavour Mining ...

  3. Coeur Mining (CDE) Market Cap 1985-2026 - FinHacker.cz - As of May 8, 2026, Coeur Mining had a market cap of $19.2 billion , which increased by 2.35% compare...

  4. Lundin Gold | LUG - Market Capitalization - Trading Economics - Lundin Gold reported $20.49B in Market Capitalization this May of 2026, considering the latest stock...

  5. Strait of Hormuz diesel shock threatens mining industry - Oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz have cut oil exports from approx 20 mb/d before the war to ...

  6. Gold Fields flags oil shock as mining costs climb - The Northern Miner - Although diesel prices have risen between 30% and 70% since February and liquefied natural gas price...

  7. Open-pit gold miners most exposed to high oil prices: Jefferies - A 10% increase in oil prices could raise all-in sustaining costs by about $10 per oz. ... by mine ty...

  8. Gold Fields FY 2025 presentation: 391% cash flow surge drives ... - Gold Fields delivered exceptional financial results in 2025, with headline earnings reaching US$2.58...

  9. Lundin Gold Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Results - Lundin Gold Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Results

  10. [PDF] Newmont Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 ... - Fortune - Sustaining Capital ($M). Managed Portfolio. $1,660. Non-Managed Portfolio. $290. Total Newmont Susta...

  11. AngloGold Ashanti Q4 and Year Ended 31 December 2025 Earnings Release and Dividend Declaration - LONDON & DENVER & JOHANNESBURG, February 20, 2026--AngloGold Ashanti plc's(2) delivered record free ...

  12. Kinross Gold Q4 2025 Results and Full-Year Earnings Call Summary - Kinross Delivers Record Quarterly Free Cash Flow of US$412 Million and Full-Year Production of 2.15 ...

  13. Endeavour Reports Strong FY-2025 Results - ENDEAVOUR REPORTS STRONG FY-2025 RESULTSRecord 2025 free cash flow of $1,156m l Record 2025 sharehol...

  14. Coeur Reports Fourth Quarter and Full-Year 2025 Results - Sustaining capital expenditures (excludes capital lease payments). $. 38.1. $. 13.8. $. 9.8. $. 9.2....

  15. Agnico Eagle Mines Q4 Results and Full-Year Earnings Call Summary - Agnico Eagle Q4 2025 earnings report and full-year results show record free cash flow and production...

  16. Alamos Gold Reports Fourth Quarter and Year-End 2025 Results - For the full year, total cash costs of $1,044 per ounce and mine-site AISC of $1,473 per ounce were ...